When Amazon announced that over the Xmas period 2009, they sold more downloaded eBooks than standard paperbacks, following the international expansion of sales of Amazon Kindles, then publishers could no longer remain unconvinced that eBooks were just a passing fad. The market in 2009 has been dominated by a small number of players in the supply of hardware, principally Amazon and Sony with the Cool-er eReader hot on their heels. What all these devices have in common is their use (provided by the same company) of a revolutionary electronic ink display which mimics paper, and without the need for power once text or images are displayed, to provide a crisp and clear read in direct sunlight on a screen the size of a paperback. This is in contrast to the backlit LCD and LED displays found on laptops and Smartphones. Reading extended text or books on LCD screens can be uncomfortable for many after 15minutes or so and virtually useless when outdoors, with tiny screens being a major irritation. eReaders make particular sense because they conserve precious space in overcrowded rooms or inside heavily packed suitcases and are great reading in bed.
However the downside for users of the initial trailblazers, circa early 2007, was a feeling of a backwards crusade to the eReader equivalent of Windows 3.1 and the BBC Computer, with black & white only, no online access, a screen text refresh rate discerningly slow, clunky control buttons and a bewildering array of file formats fighting a VHS-Betamax style warfare all over again.
Things did change significantly by 2009. With the introduction in the US of the Amazon Kindle linking directly to their online bookstore via an AT&T 3G mobile network, together with the UK available Sony PRS-500 with streamlined design, desktop computer synching like i-tunes, great screen and improved functionality then eBooks went rapidly onto the map. A moving out of the technological stone-age was beginning and Gutenberg began to decidedly stir. By late 2009, buoyed up with accelerating eBook sales, Sony introduced touch screen and faster processing, the Kindle was given a keyboard and importantly can now be bought and used worldwide, still with free 3G book purchase access and both devices can annotate notes and play music. Xmas 2009 will therefore be viewed as marking the real start of the eBook revolution. So what is 2010 likely to hold in store, which defines the bridging of this innovation discontinuity toward massive and sustainable takeoff?
Tablets? Amazingly they are back again after their underwhelming launch in the early noughties by Microsoft, but are now benefiting with a potential technological revamp accompanied by the uplifting descriptor of “slates.” Apple is in the driving seat with their trailed launch of their enhanced iTouch device, drawing on the zeitgeist iPhone phenomenon. Now having had the benefit of the Steve Jobs laying of technological hands, the branded iPad, due for sale from March 2010 starting with the US market, is likely to double up as a serious all-embracing multimedia communications accessory and e-reader. Microsoft and HP remain hot on their heels with their own new tablet announcements already made and other manufacturers, having been waiting in the eReader wings, are likely to follow. This will provide an interesting pitting of Amazon against Apple for the walled-garden heart of the eBook market. Expect Amazon to react quickly with competitive ePublishing deals and Kindle apps. A defining differentiator will be price with the Kindle likely to remain substantially less than an Apple iPad and of course the LCD colour versus black and white e-ink screen technology will rumble onwards. Although Apple has not used OLED screen technology, the reader is likely to find the giant i-touch a satisfying screen experience, and e-ink has much to worry about. But e-ink colour will prevail in due course – the laboratory trials are encouraging.
Other New Technologies? At the 2010 CEL Show, a company called Plastic Logic fully unveiled their QUE, a device built by utilising revolutionary plastic semiconductor technologies developed from world beating Cambridge University research. This is moving the hardware towards the almost science fiction dream of computers looking and feeling like paper magazines, a key aspiration also of the iPad. Another device, the Skiff, has similar attributes and both will target the business reader who wants access to online newspapers and magazines in terms of screen size, portability, integrated multiple file handling capability and WiFi or mobile 3G communications. These devices will generate a significant amount of interest from publishers and eBook consumers if they really deliver what they promise in practice and become developing competitors of the iPad. The interesting question is how far the lack of the Apple stardust sprinkled into their sales pipelines will consign them to the technology graveyard or not.
So 2010 will be a very interesting year and the likely serious breakthrough for eBooks and digital publishing with a very exciting acceleration of hardware choice and access capability coming to market. Is this the death of books? Gutenberg was an innovator of his time with a process which is likely to still stand the test of time despite the digital competition. But expect in five years time for the balance of sales of e-books and printed books to reverse. The other interesting question is what is Sony doing? Achillespubtalk is a happy user of Sony eReaders and looks forward to the next Sony forthcoming innovations.